Spread hours (Jan-Jun)
OANDA Spread Analysis by Hour
Analysis of spread patterns across all OANDA instruments, based on one week of hourly candle data. All times are in Brisbane timezone (UTC+10).
Key Findings
Volume and Spread Correlation
There is a moderate negative correlation (-0.324 average) between trading volume and spread across most instruments:
- 77% of instruments show negative correlation (low volume → higher spreads)
- 24% show strong negative correlation (correlation < -0.5)
- Crypto and some exotic pairs show weak/no correlation
Implication: Avoid trading during low-volume hours to minimise spread costs.
The 07:00-08:00 Brisbane Problem
For most forex pairs, 07:00-08:00 Brisbane time (21:00-22:00 UTC previous day) has significantly elevated spreads. This corresponds to the gap between Tokyo market close and London market open.
Hours to Avoid by Instrument Category
Major Forex Pairs
| Instrument | Avg Spread (pips) | Avoid Hours | Spread Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR_USD | 1.75 | 08:00 | 2.4x |
| GBP_USD | 2.34 | 07:00, 08:00 | 2.5-3.7x |
| USD_JPY | 1.88 | 07:00, 08:00 | 2.0-2.9x |
| USD_CHF | 1.78 | 07:00, 08:00 | 2.2-3.9x |
| AUD_USD | 1.45 | 07:00 | 2.5x |
| USD_CAD | 2.03 | 08:00 | 2.6x |
| NZD_USD | 1.62 | 07:00, 08:00 | 2.1x |
Cross Pairs
| Instrument | Avg Spread (pips) | Avoid Hours | Spread Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR_GBP | 1.70 | 07:00, 08:00 | 2.6-3.6x |
| EUR_JPY | 3.24 | 08:00 | 3.3x |
| GBP_JPY | 4.53 | 07:00, 08:00 | 3.1-4.0x |
| EUR_CHF | 1.89 | 08:00 | 4.0x |
| GBP_CHF | 3.36 | 07:00, 08:00 | 3.1-4.5x |
SGD Pairs (Worst Offenders)
SGD pairs have the most extreme spread spikes:
| Instrument | Avg Spread (pips) | Avoid Hours | Spread Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD_SGD | 3.15 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.0-4.2x |
| CAD_SGD | 2.86 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.3-4.4x |
| EUR_SGD | 4.11 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.0x |
| GBP_SGD | 5.07 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.3-4.7x |
| USD_SGD | 2.68 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.1-5.1x |
| SGD_JPY | 2.99 | 07:00, 08:00 | 4.7x |
Precious Metals
| Instrument | Avoid Hours | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| XAU_USD | None | Relatively stable spreads |
| XAU_AUD | 07:00 | 2.2x spike |
| XAU_CAD | 07:00 | 2.2x spike |
| XAU_EUR | 07:00 | 2.2x spike |
| XAG_* | None | Silver pairs stable throughout |
Indices
| Instrument | Avg Spread | Best Hours | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAS100_USD | 18876 | 01:00-06:00 | 42-58% of average during US hours |
| SPX500_USD | 4792 | None | Relatively stable |
| US30_USD | 29130 | 06:00 | 71% of average |
Good Trading Hours
Best Hours (Spread ≤ 75% of Average)
Most major forex pairs have tight, stable spreads without significant "best" hours. However, some instruments show clear optimal windows:
GBP_JPY: 01:00-06:00, 17:00, 19:00, 21:00-23:00 Brisbane
NAS100_USD: 01:00-06:00 Brisbane (aligns with US market hours)
AU200_AUD: 09:00-15:00 Brisbane (Australian market hours)
EUR_CZK: 01:00 Brisbane
Recommendations
For Automated Trading Systems
- Implement time-based spread filters - reject trades during high-spread hours
- Use the JSON data file (
spread_analysis.json) for programmatic access - Consider volume as a proxy - low volume often predicts high spreads
For Candle Pattern Analysis
Exclude candles from high-spread hours when:
- Detecting reversal patterns (spread affects apparent candle size)
- Calculating support/resistance levels
- Training ML models on price action
Hours to Always Avoid (Brisbane UTC+10)
For most forex trading, avoid:
- 07:00-08:00 for all pairs
- 08:00-09:00 for ZAR pairs (extended spike)
- 16:00-17:00 for TRY pairs
Data Reference
Spread Threshold Definitions
| Category | Threshold | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
hours_gte_4x_avg | ≥ 4x average | Extremely high - never trade |
hours_gte_3x_avg | ≥ 3x average | Very high - avoid |
hours_gte_2x_avg | ≥ 2x average | Elevated - caution |
hours_good_lte_75pct_avg | ≤ 0.75x average | Good conditions |
hours_best_lte_half_avg | ≤ 0.5x average | Optimal conditions |
Volume/Spread Correlation Interpretation
| Correlation | Meaning |
|---|---|
| < -0.5 | Strong negative - volume strongly predicts spread |
| -0.5 to -0.2 | Moderate negative - volume somewhat predicts spread |
| -0.2 to 0.2 | Weak/none - spread independent of volume |
| > 0.2 | Positive - unusual, investigate further |
Files
spread_analysis.json- Complete data for all instruments (machine-readable)spread_data_with_volume.csv- Raw hourly data with volumeexamples/spread_by_hour.rs- Rust code to regenerate this analysis
Methodology
- Data source: OANDA v20 API (practice environment)
- Period: Last 7 days of hourly candles (168 candles per instrument)
- Spread calculation: Ask close - Bid close for each candle
- Timezone: All hours converted to Brisbane (UTC+10)
- Pip conversion: ×10000 for most pairs, ×100 for JPY pairs
Generated: January 2026 Data refresh recommended: Weekly